Friday , September 17 2021

Why now the Central Bank does not cease to buy dollars? – 14.01.09

He bought $ 20 million on Thursday, $ 40 million on Monday and Monday another $ 50 million, The Central bank now he is focusing on buying foreign currency, but he can not get a noticeable rise in prices.

At the beginning of the week The dollar was $ 37 at the wholesaler and $ 38.06 The US is trading in a quiet exchange rate, characterized by a larger supply of banknotes in the face of obviously weaker demand.

As president of the Central Guido Sandler like a flaw Gustavo Canyonero, they are very cautious when they talk about the growing exchange rate of calm in recent weeks.

Government sources point out, however, that lthe decision to buy more dollars BKRA reacts to the fact that both the company and private individuals demanding more pesos

The process began in December, when demand for pesos, the opposite of dollarizationHe grew up higher forecasts the official Central has predicted that this demand could be secured by an increase of 6% of the amount of money and, finally, It turned out 10%.

Thus, both companies and depositors they threw dollars to get peso partly for the payment obligations, but also in order to take advantage of the high interest rates that banks are still paying against the expected inflation in the coming months.

The decline of the dollarization rate of the last month and the beginning of this happened simultaneously with change in the result of the commercial balance.

Sharp drop in imports in the heat of a recession she was crossed with an improvement, albeit moderate, in exports. "Today, for each of them, you need $ 4,000 worth of exports that require importing" assured a well-known local changer.

But the backdrop of financial tranquility is explained by the fact that interest rates in pesos are sent and the possibility of a quiet dollar the power of attractiveness short-term short-term pesos deposits.

The Badlar rate (for deposits exceeding one million pesos) is 44.69% annual and for a fixed period for smaller sums of 43.76%, that is, both, despite the fall, they are positive against forecasts of inflation this year, which make up about 30%.

These high rates in real terms offered to pesos holders are, in turn, supported by the fact that the bills (Leliq), which the Central Office places in banks to receive pesos from the market, pay 57.80% per annum. Central continued to decline Leliq that at the beginning of the week It was set at 57.80% per annumIt should be noted that the rate was 70% in October 2018, when the new monetary regime began, and that last year it ended at about 60%. Until then, when and how fast it will go down?

In the Central, they refuse to make categorical predictions on the subject of understanding that this is a question fine tune and it largely depends on expectation that is generated around the duration of the exchange rate of tranquility that is felt in the market.

Operators underlined the statement of the Minister of Finance, Santiago Bausli, concerning the Treasury Will sell $ 10 billion since April in the market to meet fiscal needs.

They are IMF dollars, which are added to the income generated by Russia's exports wheat, corn and soy and before the strong ones falling demand for foreign currency for imports they will determine the fluid exchange system during the first part of the year.

It is clear that the new structure also responds to the options in a the international financial context is less frightened on the possibility of a strong increase in the interest rate in the US and, consequently, reacts with less rejection of risks and some revaluation of currencies in developing countries.

Interest rate board is the cause and consequence, also, of the official priority to strengthen dollar stability in an attempt to calm down the price indices in early 2019, which are already loaded with rates, is increasing. The delicate financial chess proposed by the government demands great prudence, and all this points to it. requirements of the real economy they have to wait.

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