Fitch has confirmed the long-term and short-term credit status of Bulgaria in foreign and domestic currency, with fixed forecasts, says the Ministry of Finance press office. The short-term grading in foreign and local currency is also retained – CF2T.
Grading rates are supported by robust external and public funding as well as a credible political framework for stepping up to join the eurozone. Grading limits are lower, average compared to BBSB graduated countries and demographic challenges that could lead to the growth and worsening of state funding over the long term.
The agency expects economic growth in 2018 to stay close to what was reported last year, at 3.7%, before slowing down in 2019 to 3.5% and 3% in 2020. Demand for the home is supported by the pay growth policy in the budget sector and the minimum wage, as well as the expected acceleration in absorbing EU funds.
The agency reviewed its prediction to accelerate the average annual inflation to 3% in 2019, from 2.8% in 2018.
A financial policy operates under a fixed cash board arrangement to the euro, the taxation agency said. The UK's foreign foreign assets are expected to reach 33% of GDP and the external liquidity ratio will reach 343% in 2018, according to Fitch's estimates, which are high compared to the median of BBBB rating countries, respectively 5, 3 % and 143.7%, and will continue to be key rating benefits over the projection horizon.
In the area of public finances, Bulgaria is also in front of the benchmarking countries. Fitch expects the positive budget balance to remain around 0.5% of GDP at the end of 2018, with the expected average 2.4% deficit for the rest of the BBSB group. Government debt also remains well below average for countries with the same extent as most EU and EU Member States.
Over the projection forecast, the Agency expects public debt to continue to fall, reducing to 19.5% of GDP in 2020. Experts also consider the external financial position of Bulgaria better from Most of the countries ran in the same rating group. Improved competitiveness and current remainder are also stated.
Combined or separate factors will result in an increase in the scale of: potential higher-level GDP growth over the medium term; faster convergence to income levels in higher-ranking countries; An increase in the process of joining the eurozone. The main factors that would be combined or individually result in downgrading are: resumption of external imbalance and / or declining competitiveness; financial deficits that would increase government debts; realizing the risks to the balance of the budget related to the materialization of state and state conditional obligations.