Friday , June 18 2021

BEAC expects "less acceleration than expected" of an economy in the CEMAC zone

Its updated projections are based on a growth rate of 1.7%, compared to + 0.2% in 2017, an increase in the general price level of around 1.7% on average, to compare with 0.9% in 2017, an increase in the surplus of financial balance base commitments, including donations, to 0.5% of gross domestic products (GDP), against -3.1% of GDP in 2017.

At the same time, the Central Bank is predicted that the current deficit of the Mid African Economic and Financial Community (CEMAC) would reduce to -3.7% of GDP, against -4.2% of GDP in 2017 as well as an increase in the supply of money of 6.3%, for the hedgerow rate of the money that would be held at 59.7%.

This data contrasts quickly with the revised forecasts for 2018 of the CEMAC financial and financial financial position of the member states, presented on 25 July by the Financial Policy Committee (MPC), and focused on faster activity, with a 2.5% growth rate against an initial forecast of + 1.9%.

At that time, the Institute of Affairs also grew on an increase in the general level of prices to 1.6% on an annual average, compared to 0.9% in 2017, the rest of the budget balance balance commitments, including grants , to 0.5% of GDP, compared to -3.3% of GDP in 2017, while the current deficit is expected to be -4.3% of GDP, compared to -4.0% of & The CMC in 2017 and an increase of the 7.1% supply of money, with an external hedge rate of the currency of 60.7%.

According to BEAC, the assumptions that are based on the expected changes in the macro-economic framework for 2018 are externally related to better recovery in world crude oil prices, depreciation of dollar US or 5.9% to 546.9 FCFA / dollar, lower than previously predicted (-8.9% to 529.1 CFA Franc / dollar).

The same projections show a strong improvement in terms of trade and, at home, the increase in oil production, the decline in gas production as well as the continuation of macroeconomic and structural reforms by CEMAC States.

The Publication Organization warns, however, the risk of not signing the Congo financial program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could have a negative effect on financial stability due to the weakness of external resources being removed which would & This is a result of such an event.

"Global economic growth acceleration would contribute to the global trade volume increase of around 4.2% in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019, compared to 5.2% in 2017 and would benefit CEMAC economies. in the medium term, despite a predictable decline in terms of trade, mainly related to the unfavorable evolution of oil prices between 2019 and 2020. "

The economic and financial sub-regional forecasts, established by the BEAC, provide for the rate of real growth activity, which should reach 3.4% in 2019, before dropping to 3.0% and 3.1% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, compared to 1.7% in 2018, mainly due to the performance of the oilless sector, a development that would result from the development of the agricultural, services, construction and public work (BTP) sector, and manufacturing industries.

In order to support activity in the oil-free sector, Central Bank is committed to the restoration of security in the Central Republic of Africa and the Chad and Chamono boundaries with Nigeria, as well as the northern and south-western regions of Cameroon. but also on the implementation of the Financial and Financial Reform Program (PREF-CEMAC) and the positive restrictions on the implementation of the financial consolidation measures contained in the programs signed by the United States with the IMF.

In the medium term, inflation forecast by Bank services increases, while still lower than the norm of a Community of 3%, thanks to the increase in taxation, strength The domestic demand, which is maintained by the increase in the budget revenue and the rise in fuel prices in the Gabon and their continued growth in the division, due to indexing them to world crude oil prices.

Over the period 2019-2021, CEMAC's public finances would remain outstanding, while external accounts would have difficulty recovering over the years and the external currency coverage rate would fall from 63.5% in 2019, to 65.2 % in 2020 and 67.7% in 2021, after 59.7% in 2018, in relation to the continued increase in net foreign assets in an annual variation of 13.4% in 2019, 7, 0% in 2020, and 14.3% in 2021 after 19.9% ​​in 2018.

However, there are some risks on these prospects, involving slippage in operating programs with the IMF, a sharp and unexpected reduction in the price of crude oil barrel, tightening of the Federal Reserve's financial policy faster than expected. USA.

Given the economic and financial situation, which is slightly improved, and in line with the strategic direction of its financial policy for 2018, the BEAC intends to continue to tighten its monetary policy to raise its holdings at an adequate level, ie at a minimum level equivalent to 3 months' attention to imports and services and servicing external public debt.

Given the favorable macroeconomic prospects of the division, and to support its external sustainability, the CPM announced last October, its decision to raise the tender rate (TIAO) by 2, 95% to 3.50%, which is the marginal lease facility of 4.70 % to 5.25%, to maintain the unchanged marginal deposit facility rate, to raise the rate to banks to 7.00% to 7.55% and to maintain unchanged backup ratios.

FCEB / chi / APA

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