Growth is likely to slow down in the coming year by more than 3.5%, according to our estimate, about 1.75% at the end of 2019, chief economist Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs.
NEW YORK, November 19 (TASR) – Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will slow down in the second half of 2019, as the Federal Federal Reserve (FED) continues to raise its interest rates and weaker and the positive tax cuts.
"Growth is likely to slow down in the next year by more than 3.5%, according to our estimate, about 1.75% at the end of 2019," Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, said. "We expect that the main reasons for the reduction will accelerate financial conditions and weaken the impact of financial stimulus."
The bank counts in the last quarter of this year with an increase of 2.5% after an increase in GDP from 3.5% in the 3rd quarter. In real terms, the GDP should rise again 2.5% in the first three months of next year, and then in the following quarters, the rate of growth should slowly slow to 2.2% in the second quarter and 1.8% and 1.6 in that order% in the 3rd and 4th Quarter.
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates again in December and then four times in the coming year. Inflation should reach 2.25% at the end of next year due to tariffs and salary growth. The bank added that the price increase could be even higher.
However, the Bank does not count in the near future with the decline in the economy. "So far, there is no concern either of the risk of overshadowing the economy or financial imbalance, which is the traditional causes of the recession in the United States," says Hatzius. He added, including the coming year, that this is the longest period of US economic growth, and that the recession is not the base scenario of the bank in the years ahead.