The global economy is at the end of the business cycle, which is typically characterized by increased risks and increasing margins in the markets. This was reported by Julius Baer's analysts.
Experts predict the global growth of GDP at the end of this year at 3.8% and slow down to 3.6% in 2019. The pace of economic growth in the United States will be 2.9% and 2.8% respectively, The eurozone – 2.1% and 1.7%.
As expected, the China GDP in 2018 will increase by 6.5%, next year – by 6.2%. The country's authorities will implement stimulating measures that will allow the restructuring of the economy to continue and a slowdown in growth, said Swiss bank report.
As operational statistics show, including indexes of PMI business feelings, the dynamics of economic growth in different countries are becoming increasingly unconfirmed. The United States continues to be a locomotive of recovery, while performance in the eurozone, while developing countries, especially with high debt pressures and structural problems, slowdown is active .
"The world's largest central banks still show a willingness to support financial markets, but this support will gradually weaken. The development of Asian countries, digital innovation, changing industries is significant, and # The new energy industry deserves special attention as new investment strategies, "said the report.
High business activity, inflation pressure and strong labor market absence makes it possible for the Federal Federal Reserve System (FED) to maintain a policy of tightening financial policy. In 2019, the US Central Bank will continue to raise the key rate, which will be by 3.5% per annum by the end of the year.
Next year, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will probably tighten credit conditions in a long time, which will limit interest rates to 25 base points – to 0.25% and 1% per annum, respectively, experts predict.
Financial markets are at the time of changing the overall trend, characterized by increasing volatility.
The 35-year-old bullish trend ends on the US government bond market, but the prospects for a large-scale discount have not yet been observed. At the same time, the relationship between US Treasury bonds and stock indexes does not tend to be: the movement of quotations from both types of assets will become increasingly disconnected and unstable, as can be seen according to the volatility of stocks in October.
However, Julius Baer does not expect that this situation will lead to an increase in the product of 10-benchmark benchmarks of US to 4% per annum.
Over the next 12 months, oil prices will be in the corridor of $ 60-80 per barrel, they believe in the bank. Increasing prices above this level will be obstructed by an increase in supply, mainly by the producers of a chalet, while OPEC + policies will stop down prices too quickly.
"The main risks in the global economy are linked to US policy, including trade disputes and exacerbating sanctions against Iran, budgetary problems in Italy, creating significant risks for the euro , and the UK exit process of the European Union. There is also a possibility of a lack in Turkey causing a chain response in emerging markets and provoking a new large-scale crisis, " says the report.
See also: The Cabinet of Ministers expects the IMF share to arrive in the coming weeks.
It was reported that the European Commission expects growth in 19 eurozone countries to fall from 10% from 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% this year, and will continue to decrease by 1.9% in 2019, to 1, 7% in 2020. Expected The same tendency for 27 EU countries, with a forecast of 2.2% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020.